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Version 16.8
Analytical review of statistic data from the report of Prof. Hans Rosling at the TED Conference of 2006,Monterrey, California
applying the data and the attitude of the works Behind the Mirror, A Search for Natural History of Human Knowledge by Konrad Lorenz, 1973 and the On Aggression by Lorenz 1966
The human society evolutionary trends analisis
Abstract
“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” (Mary Curie)
“A critical theory of globalization is necessarily transdisciplinary” , Douglas Kellner, critical theorist from the Frankfurt Institute for Social Research
The statistic
data of the demographic and economical changes, that
were taking place within last 30-40 years in world of
human civilization, were presented in the report of
Prof. Hans Rosling, presented at the TED Conference of
the 2006. These data let researcher tracing the main
trends of these changes and coming to some conclusions
on further human evolution. The statistics data,
presented at the report of Prof. Rosling together with
scientific background of the PhD in biology as well as
other materials from Social Science Researches Network
so personal experience of socializing in several various
social systems make the author able analysing the
report and coming to some conclusions concerning human
evolution trends. The comparative analytical criticisms
of the three Social Darwinism authors, Spencer, Malthus
and Galton, ideas in the regard to new sociological data
was carried out in this work. Trans-disciplinar approach
application facilitate avoiding the trap Konrad Lorenz
warned of while saying, that: “Every man gets a narrower
and narrower field of knowledge in which he must be an
expert in order to compete with other people. The
specialist knows more and more about less and less and
finally knows everything about nothing”
Introduction
Any development process is moved by the evolution engine of natural selection. Natural selection exclude unfit forms from the reproduction process. Up to the latest period of evolution that unfit forms have being got excluded from the self-reproducing process just by its eliminating. At the present stage the very nature of human evolution has changed. This change happened due to the same feature that is specific only species from other biosphere species, ie for H Sapiens
The combination of analysing mind – in other words cognitive activity, - and the Second Signal System development was the main feature that distinguished H. Sapiens from other animal species. That was that advantageous feature that determined this species' evolution successes. It is guiding its evolution above all. The medical techniques of and social welfare institutions, ie canceling the eliminating pressure of natural selection, they are ensuring the passage of the evolution from that “traditional” development to the new ones, which occurred for the first time relatively recently. This is selection by various means of social competitions – ie to the market mechanisms and political discussion. Combination of these two factors works instead of natural selection, making the most adjusted forms surviving and reproducing. By now to realise better the current international situation, its innate eternal motives are to be analyzed from the natural sciences point of view. So by now historians have to face the fact that natural selection determined the evolution of cultures in the same manner as it did that of species – as used to say the prominent ethologist Konrad Lorez. That means that the civilisation evolution is to be analysed and understood from the natural sciences point of view not. The subjects of natural science analyse are the real facts, but not their interpretations. Those interpretations are usually to some extend affected by any kind of ideologies for they strongly depend on the interpreter's “thinking habits” if not just some political or business interests.
. The analysis of trustworthy statistic data on the Wold development, presented in the report of the prof Rosling allow carrying that analysis out. The natural science interpretation of these data is to assist in the crisis overcoming and would allow to dispense with the personification of evil, because it leads to the most dangerous kind of war: war of ideologies.
So all the
surrounding changes of the – as the productive forces
and the medical means development so the political
changes, - lead the beginning to the 20th
century to significant population increase. Hence the
role of H. Sapiens in the global ecosystem of Earth got
significantly increased too. Many data presented by
prof Sergeiy Kapiza ( in Russian, video lecture
http://www.1-film-online.com/?
In other species in course of long-term evolution in order to prevent the population destruction due to the unavoidable intraspecific aggression increase. In those species that concentration increase goes together with elaborating the mechanisms of this destructive aggression reduction. However the human society evolution from the Early Modern Age goes too fast to work out mechanisms of its reduction, that would be reliable enough. One of that aggression draining mechanism is the population falling into the anonimous crowd state and that aggression virtualization. Both of them have powerful side-effects. The risks of those effects would be regarded further on.
For the so-called “Western” part of the World the social evolution got started in the Early Modern Age the speed of this kind of evolution significantly increased in the 20th century. Via numerous the technological innovations the Western-style development affected the development of the whole Word.
By now the the social aspect of human evolution is getting much stronger than it ever had before. In this essay the classification is applied, that Prof Rosling is using in his report. The sharp difference between “the West” and others societies made Huntington write a book titled ”The West and the rests”. In that work he described this situation and predicts the unavoidable “civilization conflict” due to those deepest differences. In this essay we would try to discuss the Huntigton's idea of this conflict inevitability in that destructive military form that he was predicting.
Since the global civilisation progress is ensured first of all by the Western management model, it may be regarded as the evolutionary mainstream for the H. Sapiens species. The statistic facts prove that it provides its subjects with better living standards. Beside that it ensures the society ability to adjust to changes into surrounding conditions while keeping system homeostasis. That is the main feature of any biological system.
Critical review of old-fashioned ideas of the Social Darwinism concept
Despite that
Darwin considered the theory of social evolution as
central to his theory, it was first misunderstood and
due to this misunderstanding it was then paid few
attention by sociologist and economists, reports Alain
Marciano from the University of Reims Champaign-Ardenne.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/
The disastrous consequences of this misinterpretation had discredited the very concept of this idea. It had got even somewhat indecent to mention that term “sociodarwinism”. However all the facts got during the 20th century, especially it's second part, together with recent researches prove that the socio-psychological component is not less important is heredity that those “traditional” biochemical ones.
The significance of epigenetic factor has been recently regarded by evolutionist. So for instance in the book by Eva Jablonka and Marion Lamb, MIT press, May 2005, Genetic, Epigenetic, Behavioral, and Symbolic Variation in the History of Life a have being discussed at the scientific level. The facts studied by that work made real Revolution in Evolution, says Beth Hannon from the Durham University, Philosophy department (Kaleidoscope 1.1 (2007), , Book Review)
The problem weither human evolution has been doing on since the pre-historical times was discussed by many scholars. Mainstream science maintains that humans stopped evolving about 50,000 years ago and that Civilization put an end to process.
However since the process of Globalization had started due to the communication means development that previous paradigm got out-of-date. It fails explaining many facts of real modern life, so as for instance the difference in behavioural patters of peoples of the Easter and Western parts of Germany. Peoples of both parts were more-or-less genetically uniform. However the development under the different social conditions in course of just 50 years made that difference that deep that it still actual after 20 years of these parts consolidation. Even more vivid examples are the deep difference between peoples of the South and North Coreas, or the difference in behavioral patter between the Singapore citizens and surrounding South-East Asia countries peoples
By now the idea of social factors influence is being developed by increasing number of scholars. So says the article of the Director of Communications at The World Future Society and Senior Editor at THE FUTURIST Patrick Tuker “How the evolution evolves”. That article reviews the book by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending the Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, Sergey Kapiza, Akop Nazaretian and many others.
This idea gets more and more popularised by various medias, from the Los Angeles Times to NYTimes, here is just one example, for instance
http://www.latimes.com/news/
In that
article in the Discovery news (from the 28Oct of 2009 by
Marlowe Hood) the data are presented that prove that
“Culture drives gene” http://news.discovery.
All the said
above proves that the role of genetic determinism was
traditionally badly overestimated. Hence by now the
importance of the up-to-date interpretation of Social
Darwinism has been significantly increased
Natural selection by non-eliminating means in the present human society
The traditional press of natural selection that forward the evolution of other species is now replaced by marketing success mechanisms, that secure the primary surviving of forms, providing higher income, and the democracy mechanisms, those are to secure competition between ideas. As for typical for other species genetic heredity – it was replaced by cultural heredity mainly. The latter is closely related with the Second Signal System development. In course of humankind development history it getting more and more influential. Its influence increases together with communication means and market-forming technologies development. Hereinafter the evolutionary brach, that follow that direction would be called the democratic or Western system.
Unfortunately at the current stage both of those innovative means are badly intercorrelated. They strongly influence each.
Since the
market success is not that strict as merely surviving,
it is more than just some innovative ways of any
natural resource use, the market promotion of the
obtained product is not less important as well. So
the successful development of the marketing
technologies contribute to the market success not
less, may be even more by now.
Other biological species,that have no reasoning or free will (NB!), are to follow ethological instincts of social animals. These instincts suppose the more-or-less strict hierarchical autocratic pattern of organisation. So were the strict rigid autocratic organization of a flock, a hive and so on. That system of hierarchical social organization occurs quite naturally due to the innate mind pattern, may it be called further the traditional mind pattern. So was the human society till the Early Modern Period – so called traditional society that needs traditional mind pattern . Till now all over the World there are still many states that have been keeping that traditional rigid autocratic social organisation. So may that branch be called the traditional one.
The main
evolutionary advantage of the Western system is first
of all the ability of relatively rapid self-changing
as response to the changing surrounding conditions. This
difference is determined first of all by mind pattern.
No changes of the state system from outside are
possible without the corresponding changes of citizens
mind pattern. Otherwise the social system would be
constantly self-reproducing. By now there are many
historical works that had already proved it.
In general the ability to response to the surrounding condition changes, while preserving the system homeostasis, is the main specific features for living world systems. However the constant fluctuations threaten the system homeostasis and its sustainability not less than the lack of this response.
So dangerous are both extremes of social patterns – as autocratic so hyperindividualized or ultraliberal one, since both of them contradict to the social nature of H. sapiens .
Due to natural causes the human population rose, simultaneously rose the peoples economical needs. Under the conditions of moderate recourses abundance it facilitated the Market development. In case the natural resources are slightly restricted, the latter is based on the independent cognitive mind activity development. However together with market developing the market- forming techniques got developed too. In order to increase the revenues these techniques were designed in order to reduce unique free will by making consumers more gullible and suggestible. So this branch failed later into the most dangerous form of autocracy – the market success autocracy.
Here new term is introduced: Market Autocracy.
It's nature is the following:
In the countries, whose social structure has been the result of a long history of democracy development the market economy has been developed. It's is able to meet the raising modern needs of a human society better. However the market-forming technologies development made people falling into the autocracy of other type – the autocracy of marketing forming technologies.
It happens just due to the market ideology. After all the market is aimed to meet the needs of the most mass consumers. The higher the product consumer’s quantity is – the better. That makes the commercial revenues higher. The mass consumers are never characterized with some outstanding properties – that is the reason these properties are called "outstanding". Hence the market is aimed to the "maximum" of the average distribution curve.
There is the statistical law, which shows that if the eliminating selection factors are absent, the maximum of that curve shifts toward the more frequent feature. That is why the market, which aims to the mass consumer needs meeting, while simultaneously securing the surviving of the less intellectually developed individuals, causes the decrease of the general intellectual development of a society. It proves by the Flynn's Effect that shows that in the developed countries the “general IQ” level was significantly rising up to approximately 70s, but turned backward later.
Simultaneously the aspiration for meeting any individual needs results in the individualization level increasing, to so-called postmodernism style beginning. It lead to the increase of any kind of asocial behaviour. That behaviour looks so unusual, exciting and interesting to the young people who never knew living in other conditions! - so in market conditions it increases the postmodernism style staff commercial revenues
The postmodernism paradigma of moral-relativism contradicts the “moral instincts”of human minds and thus it is just deepening the conflict between the society's branches
this is one of the reasons for its commercial success, however it's arising is more complicated nature.
Beside the normal creative search of any artists it is grounded by the rising intraspecific aggression due to the growing population density, especially the abnormal one in the urban areas. The subject of intraspecific aggressions in examined in details in the work of Konrad Lorenz Behind the Mirror and the On Agression
According these works one of the way to prevent this intraspecific struggle increasing is to organise a society as the anonymous crowd with low specimens individuality and weak individual-oriented relations.
So the Market Autocracy strongly favours this effect! It may be regarded as one of the ways of draining this intraspecific aggression by its exclusion into virtual zone. Just simultaneously that have other side-effects as well.
That virtualisation leads to changes in the pubic violence understanding. Peoples that have been accustomed to regarding the violence as just some virtual threat, exchange their attitude to the violence that is directed to other persons, in general. Peoples get accustomed to see it.
So the combination with the Flynn's Effect and market demand-forming laws development of led to of a mass postmodernism arising and its flourishing in the pop cultures. (in its mass pop-forms; talented and unique persons may occur always and anywhere; they are unique because they contradict some traditional patters,indeed. But they are not mass-actors. I mean if anyone contradicts this pattern, the unique person is to contradict that crowd too. Hence it would hardly be commercially recognized)
Indeed that way of intraspecific aggression expression seems safer. Just that effect get almost canceled by its side effect
That risk is not the only one. there is another risk.
Aiming to meeting any customer unique need the Market Autocracy significantly promote falling of people with poorly developed individual mind under the the influence of Narcissistic syndrome. The WHO determine it as a medical problem the Narcissistic personality disorder. It determines it as a serious decease that need special treatment. This loud scientific name makes the Narcissus person believing that it's a serious decease that need no patient efforts, just medicines are needed to cure it. It takes off from him any blame and it sounds even somewhat flattering – look, how special I AM!
However the same thing was threatened formerly as just poor breeding or, in other words, just poor juvenile socializing. In other words it used to be called the “spoilt child” A thing that may perfectly been fixed through child' developing in course of the one's juvenile period. Unfortunately unlike the medicines treatment it needs some objects efforts too...
So the market-forming technologies strongly favouring the Narcissism personality disorder development. This Narcissism syndrome also favoured the postmodernisms style flowering
At the point of market success we'd find a kind of Nesterov loop – the innovative way of some resource use may occurred only in result of man independent cognitive activity, but its development decrease the competitive man's success in market conditions!
That ambitious problem is perfectly illustrated by results of the experiment, carried out in the Bell Company in 60-es. (The experiment is described in the article the The ‘Learning Knights’ of Bell Telephone by Wes Davis in the NY times Published: June 15, 2010) In order to increase the “innovative capacity” of its high-tech business the company management tried to follow the recommendations of the sociologist E. Digby Baltzell in an article published in Harper’s magazine in 1955: “A well-trained man knows how to answer questions, they reasoned; an educated man knows what questions are worth asking.” That is why the program of the deeper humanitarian education for the engeneering staff of the company was initiated. It got significant increase of the staff creativity indeed
Apparently that the described above Nesterov loop was one of the reasons those got the World into the current crisis
All the above made Konrad Lorenz to write on the Civilised man's Eight Deadly Sins.
These are 1) overpopulations, which turns a society into a behavioral sink and reinforces the other sins; 2) the devastation of the natural environment, with consequent atrophy of our aesthetic and ethical feelings; 3) "man's race against himself," or a ruthless "intraspecific" competitiveness, which in the absence of effective "extra-specific" influences, "works in direct opposition to all the forces of nature, destroying all the values they have created" 4) an entropy of feeling, an increased sensitiveness to unpleasurable experience combined with a decreased capacity for pleasure and a childish insistence of instant gratification; 5) genetic decay, the loss through domestication, through the loss of extraspecific selecting pressures, of "all delicately differentiated behavior patterns of courtship and pair formation" an of our natural sense of justice; 6) the break with tradition, with culture, a body of adaptive knowledge that "has grown by selection in the same way as it develops in an animal species" and that is just as hard to begin from scratch as a new species of animal; plus the consequent conflict between generations; 7) the easy indoctrinability of modern man, especially by behaviorist ideology - "the present-day rulers of America, China and the Soviet Union are unanimous in one opinion: that unlimited conditionality of man is highly desirable." And finally 8) a willingness, resulting from the first seven sins, to manufacture and use nuclear weapons.
These sins are to be seen like serious social development deceases. In order to cure them their “natural history” it is to be studied. So let's regard if them may be cured.
Those from 1 to 3 are all caused by constant population growth. So what can be done with it? Only the process of population density autoregulation in matured biocoenosis can be looked forward. The recent demography changes data proves that it had already started.
Here we would prove as well that that process is closely related with ecology problems solving – ie natural environment devastating
The points from 3 to 4 are directly related with the Market Autocrace results - postmodernism, Narcissus Personal disorder and the market success based just on the market technologies better use. That is that “ruthless "intraspecific" competitiveness, which in the absence of effective "extra-specific" influences, "works in direct opposition to all the forces of nature, destroying all the values they have created" – so that is exactly that Nesterov loop the Western World got into. The ways to get out of that loop are regarded below
5 - The Eugenics programs had been badly discredited by the political means they were realized with. More to that point – no positive results of their implementation was obtained. The decrease of the traditional genetic changes significance in human heredity have already been proved above.
Point number 6 would be regarded further.
Number 7 - the peoples increased indoctrinability - is the hardest one. It is caused by the 4 previous points effects. However many recent sociopsychology data prove that some methods of up-to-date methods of social darwininsm may help to overcome them So human behaviour is conditioned to some extend, just not directly by just behavioristic methods.
The mechanism of this 7th sin development in the USA was regarded in the details in the work Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion.( Pratkanis, A. R., and E. Aronson. 1992. New York: W. H. Freeman.)
The point 8 on nuclear weapon development and use is the most serious one for it leads to the very biocoenosis destruction. It is still threatening the World. However we should not miss the fact that as a result of the nuclear deterrence strategy large-scale wars between main opponents were successfully avoided. The aggression was excluded into many local wars. The number of peoples killed in course of these wars were sill very high however the total biocoenosis destruction was prevented.
All the first 7 sins together increase the power of instinctive behaviorism laws on human society and hence the power of any biosphere ecological laws, such as the Malthus effect and the Lemmings effect as well. This is the natural mechanism of population density regulating of other social species of the Earth biosphere. The Lemmings effect is promoted by organising society as anonymous crowd. Simultaneously the anonymous crowd increases guiding influence of the crowd leaders. It is what is usually called the Hive psychology.
In the 2001 the Nobel award of Economics was obtained by the prominent economist Akelof for describing the Market of Lemon effect. This effect was described in "The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism" is a paper written by him in 1970.
in this paper Akerlof explains how the interaction between quality heterogeneity can lead to the disappearance of a market where guarantees are indefinite. This effect that is strongly facilitated by the modern market-forming technologies cancel all the previous theories on the Free Market Organising. Demand for the market success promotes market forming technologies development - so by now not the product innovation would go first, but the way of presenting that product at the market, ie the way to make its potential consumers more suggestible.
However later
on this strategy strikes back, decreasing the
innovative creators capacity.
Currently number of economists study the evolutionary economy in correction with demography is increasing all over the Western World. The Israel economist Oded Galor, currently staff of the Economics Department of the Brown University, works in the field of demographic economics as well. He made significant contributions to the study of development traps, population economics, the relationship between fertility, life expectancy, education, inequality and economic growth, technology and wage inequality, and the foundations of overlapping-generations models. His recent work has pioneered research into the interaction between human evolution and economic development, and the transition from stagnation to growth, where he has founded the field of unified growth theory which models the growth process over the entire history of the human species.
By now that effect got actual not just for market, for state politic services as well.
Continuous economy growth means certain biocoenosis devastation or changes of the established relations between biocoenosis species.
At that point the interrelation of ecology and sociology would be explained below.
The modern meaning of the word “ecology” is wider, than it was in the first decades of that science development. More to that, currently the ecological questions are often understood first of all as just questions of the environment preservation. All the above makes the relation between sociology and ecology sounding somewhat paradoxical – indeed, what is the connection between the environment protection and our society's life? These two subjects seem to have nothing in common!
However, if
the initial definition of ecology is regarded this
paradox would disappear.
The classic definition of the Ecology says that it’s a
science studying mutual relations between living
organisms and the environment of their dwelling.
The Ecology as a science facilitating the
understanding of the ecosystems functioning, mutual
relations between living creatures and their
environment. it explains the conditions of the system
development and homeostasis of such systems preserving.
The tools for attaining that kind of knowledge are
supervision, carrying out of experiences and applying of
the theories to the phenomena analisis.
It includes
nature preservation just as one of its part. In general
it is to regard any relations as inside the society
between human beings, so their interrelations with the
nature may also be a subject of an ecological study.
If using the Ecology definition offered by Hаeсkel in
1866 that term would embrace all the concepts and
phenomenae, related with the environment.
Currently human
habitat covers the entire world, and, hence, the
majority of species are suppressed, The most important
is that the interrelations between them have been
impaired as well. Suppression of other species leads to
the increasing simplification of its habitat. That
is causing further problems, the problems of the
system homeostasis ensuring. To prevent this problem
arising the dominating species H. Sapiens has to use his
evolution advantage - the cognitive mind development.
Unfortunately since the general decrease of the need of independent cognitive activity in the modern society conditions the so-called mythological – or traditional, ie autocratic - mind pattern developed again among many common peoples. If the links between some 2 event are not clear people tend explaining them as some magic results, some “Higher forces influence”. Simultaneously it is the higher authority – usually the God, - one may refer to with no confirmation but its words or some ancient manuscripts. Some specialist call that autocratic mind pattern Hive psychology. This caused that “revanche de Dieu”many sociologists and philosophers are discussing now.
prof Jonatan Haidt regarded this question in hid book MORAL PSYCHOLOGY AND THE MISUNDERSTANDING OF RELIGION as well as his work of 2007 “Moral psychology and the misunderstanding of religion”, published on www.edge.org, 9/9/07.
Since that “revanche” is usually managed by highly traditional religious structures, the latter usually resist any social changes, especially if these religious structures are closely incorporated into the state managing structures.
In the meanwhile due to many demographic problems together with the natural resources exhausting the intraspecific struggle between those two branches within the single species H. sapiens had significantly increased.
Today that
competition increasing may lead too easily to the most
dangerous kind of war: religious war. That would happen
just after natural laws if the natural sciences methods,
free of ideological influence would not be applied
to the “ civilization conflict” analysis. That
analysis would assist in peoples dispensing with the
personification of evil just as Konrad Lorenz warned in
the end of the last century-millennium.
What the evolutionary advantages are
The Western
system is providing human being with better living
conditions by changing the surrounding nature
conditions. It dealt with single human beings , not
with crowd , - at least it was so before it fall
under the Market Autocracy. So prove statistic data
presented in the report of Prof Rosling the Human
rights and the democracy statistics
http://www.gapminder.org/
and Uwe
Sunde from the
Institute for the
Study of Labor (IZA); University of Saint Gallen)
As opposed to the latter the traditional social system otherwise aims to conserving the traditional intersociety interrelations pattern. Hence they would rather prevent any response to conditions changes, leaving them neglected at the cast of ideology strengthening – here we regard social part of religion as a kind of ideology as well . Simultaneously the needs and demands of the members of society under changes are neglected, and their loyalty to the certain state system is guaranteed by ideology pressure reinforcing.
That contradicts evolution and leads to society stagnation or even to certain recession under changing conditions.
The article The Chronic Dependence of Popular Religiosity upon Dysfunctional
Psychosociological Conditions by Gregory Paul, ( Evolutionary Psychology
www.epjournal.net – 2009. 7(3): 398-441http://www.epjournal.
Two evolutionary branches struggle
Not just the interspecific struggle move the evolution. The intraspecific struggle between different forms of the single species is actually higher. On its basis a single species gets origin to new separate species. This intraspecific struggle within still single species of H. sapiens means the struggle between the democratic and the traditional forms of the social structure, ie the conflict between two forms of mind pattern.
The sense of natural selection is supposed to secure the several generations surviving of the fittest form.
Since that nowadays this is first of all the public psychology changes they are more mobile than genetic changes. These changes may be well managed. That hints to some exit.
The concept of the fittest model in sociology
and two reproduction strategies
Then we should regard what the meaning of the word “the fittest”is, so what the most optimal adjustment for a species? In other species biology it is that form that guarantee the higher number of its descendants surviving in course of several generation. So the advantages of life conditions of the Western civilization are evident (life longevity, infant mortality, income per Capita ). It is proved by data presented at the Prof Rosling' report.
However due to low reproductive rate it is not able to secure within several generation the inheriting of its traits. That means that these Western countries fallow reproductive K-strategy, that one that was called by Prof Rosling students typical for the “western World” “long lives, small families”. That strategy supposes that any couple have fewer descenders which are more competitive in long-term period but in short-term one it loses in competition with the another, let's say, traditional branch.
The representatives of that second branch follow the r-strategy, when people mostly have large families and short lives and higher infant mortality – as it is shown at the charts presented by Prof Rosling. The same charts show the trend within the Third World Countries to move from one strategy to another in course of the latest 30 years. In other species ecology this process is typical for any natural bioceonosis final forming. Its new areas are exploited by r-srategy species. That change its basic conditions. Then those species are replaced by the K-strategy species in course of succession. So works the population density autoregulation mechanism the in the biocoesonis succession in course of bioceonosis maturing. That process prevent the biocoenosis from its resources overexploiting by the forever-growing population. So in order to ensure its further existing H. sapiens is to pass through this process. After the data presented in the report on the Word's changes in human society this process is closely related with the Western social model distribution.
The data from the demography report of Sergey Kapiza prove that currently the population rate all over the world is slowing down now. The age composition of the World population is significantly changing too. All that means that in fact the process of the transition from the r-strategy of the reproduction to the K-strategy, which is typical for matured communities.
That
transaction is to help to overcome the Earth
overpopulation problem and the problem of the natural
resources extermination. The head of the Russian
Institute of Demography Mr Vyazovsky (http://www.youtube.com/watch?
The role of social managing system in social evolution may be well observed the most evident while comparing demography changes in India, China and, especially in Vietnam, that has by now the same family size and life longevity as they were in the USA by the start of Vietnam war.
The main
problem is that this process cause serious
disproportion between the West and the Developing
Word countries population density and age composition
(articles on demography changes of dr Si Frumkin from
his site
http://www.sifrumkin.com/
This strategies transaction process started at the beginning of the 20th century. At that moment the Earth population had rapidly increased under the influence of industrial revolution.
That
transaction is to help to overcome the Earth
overpopulation problem and the problem of the natural
resources extermination. The head of the Russian
Institute of Demography Mr Vyazovsky (http://www.youtube.com/watch?
At this
range only the Arab states break that trend. There the
life expectancy increased, infant mortality decreased
but the birth rate did not changed significantly.
Simultaneously it should be noticed that despite all the
oil prices growth the GDP has been even slightly
decreased even in the most successful state, the United
Arabs Emirates.
The conclusion from all the above would be that these are not just the cursed USA, who are dictating its evil will to the rest of the Word. No, this pattern just offer better living condition and THAT makes people voluntary accepting it. However this model contradict with the “ideological”, “traditional” branch system. That means that traditional system leaders have to increase the ideology pressure in order no to loose the competition. Thus the straggle increases significantly and the modern political situation presents us many examples for it.
That is why the 6th of the Civilized Man's Deadly Sins the break with tradition is not that Deadly Sin at all. Rather otherwise, most of the tradition do not help the society to meet rapidly changes surrounding condition.
However genetically H. sapiens is still ONE species, till now. So this struggle may be still managed if new scientific achievements are applied in the politics of the state whose politics affect all the rest of the word now – the USA.
The role of social managing structures
The role of social structures – governments is in securing the living advantages of Western system is especially high. It is proved by the statistic data, presented at the report of Dr Hans Rosling at the the TED Conference in Monterrey at the year of 2006. The most evident it gets seen, if one look at the comparison of the Vietnam, South Korea and Brazil development in course of the 20th century (the latest two were at about the same level in 60-es, but the South Korea moves forward much faster and is obviously much more successfully socially organized unit).
The free-market-democratic system is more-or-less coping with the securing of the short-term providing of its members with higher living standards (see the data on the life longevity, children mortality and income per capita in the USA and the OECD countries presented in the report of Mr. Rosling). So this system more-or-less succeed in meeting this goals in course of few (less than 5) generations.
However it's not that good in ensuring this advantage for the period long enough (let's say several generations on). This failure occurs due to the retarding in the corresponding changes in the public psychology. The Western system is closely related with increasing urbanization level, globalization and hence to the unavoidable intraspecific aggression level increasing. So new ways of compensation mechanisms are to be to be worked out.
The rapid social surroundings changes cause serious psychology changes . They affect first of all the human emotions, which are controlled by ethological instincts mainly. And these instincts are first ones to wich any autocratic system calls for, no matter is it the autocracy of the state, of some ideology or that one of the market.
In the meanwhile the human life under the conditions of the Western system with the current development of technologies makes the species main evolutionary advantage – ie analitical cognitive activity - almost unnecessary for certain everyday surviving. In these conditions the basis of the Western system may get neglected and forgotten. That causes some society recession. Hence it may easily fail into its traditional autocratic state and lose its advantages, so lose the competition. Sure hyperindividualisation prevents it from political autocracy. However the Market Autocracy is not much better as it was explained above. However inspiring is the fact, that the innovations lay at the bottom of the market system, so in order to securing its-self surviving it is to promote this ability.
In the meanwhile the level of intraspecific aggression increases. And the struggle between the two evolutionary branches is getting stronger. At the present moment it threatening the very humanity existence.
That means that the evolutionary advantages of that system are now to be analysed and applied in politics in order to prevent the system collapsing
How the competition of these two branches might be managed?
The only exit from this situation seems the changes of public psychology through wide enlightenment program, that is based on the analitical mind development. That program is to start since the childhood while the very thinking habits are just forming. Such program is to be accompanied with certain social program that offers people the reason-based choice opportunity. To do this choice person is to to de responsible and have developed mind (or well-trained, whatever).
Besides that program would assist peoples in searching for natural sciences explanations by some phenomena observer, rather than somemithological ones. That would also facilitate the renovaring of the traditional mind pattern to the modernized one and via this it would contribute the social system modernization too
The individual is to be able to make reason-based choice after its own decisions. The importance of this ability was many times discussed by various authorized theorists, such as Knocke, B (1990) in Political networks: structural perspective (Cambridge, England; New York Cambridge University Press)
He places emphasis on information and knowledge, in addition to material resources as a «basis» for defining «power» to produce intended efforts on the attitudes or behaviours of other actors in the transactions around network». The skill of any person ability to make independent conclusions was also discussed by Richard Thousand in his «Straight and crooked thinking». Muslim writer from Jordan Shechar Al-Nabusi was complaining on lost Muslims mind. Prof. Pervez Amirali Hoodbhoy, the professor of nuclear and high-energy physics, and the head of the Physics Department at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan in his article in the Phisicstoday from August 2007, page 49 regrets that internal causes led to the decline of Islam's scientific greatness long before the era of mercantile imperialism. He says that to contribute once again, Muslims must be introspective and ask what went wrong. However hard it could be expected under the conditions of the current model of “political correctness” that means no efforts to be paid by the looser. Jordan is special state at the moment but it seems to be doomed after its Shakh death. Today as there so in and in the UAE there are some wise leaders but their future depends just on “God's will” only – would be their heirs that wise too? And the abundant crowds by the «poor Palestine oppressed refugees» with archaic psychological pattern could aim to zero the most of there achievements. .
Managing public psychology changes – hence managing intraspecific struggling
So instead of
huge humanitarian aid in form of ready goods from all
the Western Word the peoples in the socially retarding
countries are be trained in using new technologies – as
productive technologies so the modern social managing
ones . New job opportunities are to be created to
prevent further society lumpenization and hence its
radicalization. Via the assistance of the international
institutes new socio-political, administrative
technologies are to be brought in order to maintain this
new society type. New attitude toward life and new
social interrelations should be taught since childhood
while behaviour patterns are easily accepted by
juveniles from the more authorised people. Almost the
same thing has already been done by the New Zealand in
its Asian- Pacific region. according to the facts,
presented at In September 2000, the Millennium Summit in
Rio
http://rendt.gorter.gen.nz/
The key moment – public opinion change
That could be done through the promotion of the development of wide local mass-media network (just not the “yellow” ones! Nobody believe them, though they are highly popular and hence commercially they are the most successful. Unfortunately to combine these products with the social mission is impossible due to the format-conflict). Influence of the mass-media is hard to overestimate and underestimate at the same time. Even if one says it pay no attention to them, they form public opinion, the environment, very powerful a thing. Ex-soviet peoples know it perfectly well.
The federal level mass-media in autocratic states are usually strictly controlled by the state bodies, but less attention is paid to those of local, district or village level. In the meanwhile the lowest level local media have more options for drawing public into active social life. On the local, basic level people know their neighbours. Thus it would be easily to involve them into local society life. Through the open public opinion their responsibility would be increased. These meadias are not be dedicated to some high politics issues, but dealing with day-by-day local life not to draw additional attention to them. By making peoples involved into local social life they are to change step-by-step public psychology
However that policies would definitely meet severe opposition from the present socio-political elite of those Third Word countries for it would mean these countries getting out-of-date status. That would threaten the current elites social position Definitely they would severely resist this process, sometimes that might by military forces as well. .
And what to do with it? There seems to be no alternative.
How this systems conflict could be treated?
The other
traditional side resisting may be smoothed down a bit,
if applying win-win strategy, as says Mary Sass from the
Western Washington University his his article
“Integration is Not Collaboration: Implication for
Win-Win Negotiations”
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/
The only country that may get bothering with now it is the USA. (No matter if one likes it or not – it just is so). However till now its people together with the government are still not realising this country mission. Rather otherwise, due to the results of the Market Autocracy effects that country peoples do a lot to deepen that rapture. That is the reason of its policies permanent failure in last 8 years. Since the USA is the most powerful force now and it'd influencing all the rest of the human word, its denying of their mission makes them acting as a bull in a China shop... The steps this country was taking till now were just worsening the situation and caused anti-american moods all over the word.
In 1960es the
USA seemed to have got their mission and the president
JF Kennedy had organized the Peace of Corp with the
similar mission
http://www.peacecorps.gov/
The organization with similar goals is the Heritage foundation http://www.heritage.org/. It hadbeen recently founded to secure American cultural leadership. However till now the wide public level knows few on this organization.
In order to work out the strategies for the global problems addressing The Club of Rome, global think tank and centre of innovation and initiative was founded in April 1968 by Aurelio Peccei an Italian industrialist, and Alexander King, a Scottish scientist. It was formed when a small international group of people from the fields of academia, civil society, diplomacy, and industry, met at a villa in Rome, Italy, hence the name. In the year of 2006 Prof Sergey P. KAPITZA from the P.L. Kapitza Institute for Physical Problems, RAS, Moscow, presented to its members of the Club of Rome the report
GLOBAL POPULATION BLOW-UP AND AFTER
THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION AND
INFORMATION
SOCIETY
On the basis of this report the Global Marshal Plan Initiative was developed
What could explain the retarding in social
evolution of Muslim countries, especially in those of
the Middle East?
Usually the country development is estimated by the volume of GDP. The social development can be estimated after the share of GDP per capita. So if judge after the curves presented at the Rosling' lecture charts the Arabian states show even slight decrease of GDP per capita (family) despite all the huge oil income they have got. That means that their social development is even slowing down. These states are neglecting the growing population needs. By the above it was already shown that the development is somewhat slowing down for the population is growing intensively anyway. Prof Rosling says that the health is not the thing you can easily buy at the supermarket. As it was explained above it usually happen at the cost of ideology – ie religion – reinforsing and the reinforcing of the Out-group aggression to other groups.
So not the religious war is upcoming, but the conflict of two mind patterns.
Unfortunately it is too deep intermixed with the religious structure of the World
Prof Jonatan Haidt, Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Virginia regards the Hive Psychology wuestions, its relation with morality happiness and religion. To clarify these issues he wrote several works on it: the essay MORAL PSYCHOLOGY AND THE MISUNDERSTANDING OF RELIGION ( published in J. Schloss & M. Murray (eds.), (2009). The believing primate: Scientific, philosophical, and theological reflections on the origin of religion. New York: Oxford. pp. 278-291) as well as his book The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom (© 2006 by Jonathan Haidt. Published by Basic Books. )
If in United Arabian Emirats the policies of the Sheik is more-or-less compensating the social problems, in Yemen there is no such a wise sheikh and there is a civil war. Not less impressive is the difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka (the data presented here reflect the country state BEFORE the recent anti-terrorism war was started) – does it not prove the inborn failure of modern Muslim, ie islamistic ideology-based society ( any theocratic- ie rigid traditions-based - society fails in some ways , Muslims in the Arab countries of the Middle East are just the most vivid now. There are many reasons reasons for that - there are many reliable historical researches that explain them. These countries social retarding may be explained by the so-called Dutch Decease effect. Huge Crude Oil export benefits were making possible to forget on social development while meeting growing citizens' needs.
As for Muslim ritual part in general - they just stronger promotes society falling into the Anonimous crowd state or the falling in the Hive Psychology/ That proves the work“Religion and Support for Suicide Attacks” by Jeremy Ginges , Ian Hansen , and Ara Norenzayan from the New School for Social Research of University of British Columbia i (Psychological Science. Published Online: 8 Jan 2009). in this research the comparison of several kinds religion rituals promoting the hive effect development was carried out. That work offer the ethological explanation of the nature of that relation and the interrelations between the religion rituals and groups consolidation. The form of rituals strongly influence group consolidation under the directions of higher leader. It does not develop on the religion high ideology, it depends mainly on common rituals. While ensuring group consolidation it provides the group members with the feeling of happiness. Besides that it is a way to decrease the intragroup aggression by facilitating the anonymous crowd forming and draining the intraspecific oggression outside the unified group. The same effect has any secular mass ritual – it happens just due to the ethology laws of the intraspecific struggle draining outside some group to prevent its self-destruction.
That ritual mechanism is under the control of the group management leaders. Since any rigid ideology, that go across with biological laws and is being developing out of civil control as well, is failing in meeting the response to changing surrounding conditions, this group ideological consolidation would just increase this consolidated group further retarding.
Some ethological rituals ensuring the social group consolidation are regarded by Konrad Lorenz in his work Behind the Mirror and On Aggression.
In those works he also consider several ways of the intraspecific aggression draining outside some group.
So any system that persists in following out-of-date ideology – which includes ritual understanding of religion as well, - so that system is unavoidably felling in the same fault – instead of changing its ideology base it gets changing its citizens needs, demands and psychology . And nowadays that could not be done without certain violence
The UNO
recently had issued data reflecting the direct
connection between the nation IQ and its wealth
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
But today
excess of political correctness is just dooming the
civilization, so let us leave it forgotten for a while.
The key sense of that essay is no to oppose democratic
and autocratic system, but to prove that any traditional
system has autocratic nature. All the traditional
systems (the systems, so bewailed by modern left
intellectuals) are either highly isolated – or just
overautocratic power prevent their citizens from
escaping it and prohibit any contact with other types
of civilization.
Any tradition would be able to be preserved for long
time only if its new adept are governed by more
authority people. Usually these are older socium members
with higher hierarchical status. Almost always they
are opponents to any innovations – simply because of
biological behavioral mechanisms!
Revolution of 1917 – was not it the innovation?
One may say, that USSR could be considered as a perfect example of an autocratic system, but not traditional at all – for it was a sharp innovative break at the Revolution of 1917. So it seemed at the beginning , but soon it got absolutely not true at all! Soon the traditional imperial social organization was restored and that held as log as the "iron curtain" stayed locked. And the isolation increased until the country could stand it.
Otherwise, it caused serious social retarding. The international political influence of the USSR heightened the social retarding of many peoples, that belonged to the “countries of the communist camp”.
The only plus may be seen in this situation – the deep conflict of communists and capitalists social organisation reinforced the evolution of the capitalists countries.
Now often opinions are heard that the end of that competition and the collapse of communists system was one of the reasons – if not the main one – of the today political and economical crisis
As soon as Gorbachev had half-opened a small window there – not just that state but the whole system, camp, had fallen down with crashing down a lot of splinters around.
However the social retarding, which was caused by it, is still affecting many peoples all over the World.
So traditional systems and the autocratic ones are closely interrelated. Them both are closely related with traditional mind pattern. That pattern historically had some advantages in group surviving ensuring – if the surrounding conditions do not change or change relatively slaw. Besides even now this pattern – that is so called the Hive psychology, - ensure group consolidation around it leaders in order to overcome some difficulties. This strongly increase the group success in intergroup struggle.
this system used to work more or less OK as long as such systems stayed geographically isolated – at some island or in some areas with unique characteristics which do not allow people free migration. But today due to globalization the migrations rate increased too. So the migration rate from the traditional societies to the modernized increases too – and some traditional ones are getting striking back in resistance to the changes. The most remarkable now is the Muslim one, but it's somewhat the same for any "religious" or ideologically autocratic system with traditional mind pattern. Muslims just got a bit more "lucky". The ritual structure of the modern version of their religion strongly promotes Hive psychology. Besides, suffering the Dutch decease – huge Crude Oil export incomes - for long time strongly contributed the Middle East Countries social retarding as well. However many various reasons of this phenomena should be discussed in a separate articles In the Rome Catholic Church the most rigid out-of-date system of Holy Inquisition got break by Napoleon, the Anglican church was just evolving in the bourgois environment. But the American brach of it constantly suffers of falling into some commercialization – the results of so-called Market Autocracy.
As is Russia it happens the same now with Orthodox Church ( the Great Empire style!) so in Israel, the state in which till now there is no Constitution that separates state and the religion. Local so-called "ultra-orthodox-haredims" - they just blow up nobody unlike the Islamists!... - they just lock their districts till they are still able, ie to certain extend. But any of these branches in social plan slow down the evolution. The most evident it is in Russia where the Church is traditionally (though not legally!) highly integrated into the state structures. Almost the same happens in Israel
the role of the social evolution leader.
So it may be said that as any traditional system extreme promotion leads to certain society recession so does neglecting to any traditions. In conditions of the interspecies struggle between those two branches reinforcement it may threaten the very species existence – hence the new evolutionary and science-based approaches could not be neglected anymore and should be applied into politics
The USA are at the moment the leaders of social evolution. Their politics influence the whole word. However in order not to ruin the whole world civilization the USA are to practice more science-based politics.
In the meanwhile that might not be the reason to rest on their laurels. It's rather sophisticated task to find the “golden middle”, “the middle way” between keeping some traditions and keeping on changing along with the changing word. Just there is no other way. This is the only country that due to its history and present structure is able to do it.
However the mistakes in getting that way affect the whole word as well – as the current economics; crisis had just proved
The top priority tasks are applying the science-founded methods in politics, the methods not affected by any ideology influence. That would make possible pass to win-win strategy. That may help to overcome a large part of anti-American moods in the rest of the World.
Indeed, it seems that democratic society development seems to be rather urgent task. Just it is to be not simple military “democracy export” of latest wars, but a complex well worked-out science-based strategy
It would be is
to be somewhat close to the strategy is offered by the
gen Kilcullen in his New Strategy for the 21st
century
http://smallwarsjournal.com/
It supposes
that military actions should take about 20% of all the
efforts. Despite they are unavoidable, they should stay
limited and combined with efforts of such agencies as
USAID and Peace of Corp et al to help people in social
condition improving and local capacities building andnew
staff education
http://smallwarsjournal.com/
. The
“global but limited”role of the USA –how this could be
achievedin the renewed World?
This question bother many peoples – as
inside the USA, so in the counries bounded with the
Western type of development. . Mr Freidman in his
article “Paging uncle Sam”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/
Further Mr Friedman goes on by saying:”Never more
inward-looking, never more in demand: that’s America
today. This moment recalls a point raised by the Johns
Hopkins University foreign policy expert Michael
Mandelbaum in his book, “The Case for Goliath.”:“When it
comes to the way other countries view America’s
pre-eminent role in the world”, he wrote, “whatever its
life span, three things can be safely predicted: they
will not pay for it; they will continue to criticize it;
and they will miss it when it is gone.”
It’s time
to honor rather than avoid and outsource physical
labor. Our children are healthy enough to cut our
own lawns and pick our fruit. Let’s also hope they
want to hear a lot more about Gen. David
Petraeus’ success, and a lot less of Madonna’s
latest psychodramas. »
However the
methods of the leading role restoring would not be
limited just by methods of economical restoration.
They are to be wider , David Brooks writes on these
changes in his article the Next culture war
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/
However by
now these changes can not be limited by the USA
alone formal borders now. “The next culture
revolution“ are the right words, but their meaning
would be wider...
The USA accepting of such a responsibility would
make mr. Friedman dreams come true – but are the
United States ready for it? Some hints of such
strategy of “destruction from inside” were offered
by Max Boot, the USSR-emigrant politologist:” The US
government should do more to publicize and denounce
such abuse. We need to champion Chinese dissidents,
intellectuals and political prisoners and make them
as famous as Andrey Sakharov, Vaclav Havel and Lech
Valensa”. The anti-American moods that the Ethical
realism authors worry about, would arise anyway, but
not the policy of “Ethical realism” may smooth them
down. Instead it would just increase them, like the
Chamberlain policy toward the Nazy Germany did. At
the very establishing of the Israel the USA had
followed that strategy as well. They did not want
to conflict with the main oil producers by
supporting this new state creation.
The Taliban in Afghanistan was also strongly supported by the American agencies in its war against the USSR, the main rival of the USA of those times.
Now they enjoy the results
However
that strategy offered by Max Boot may change the
attitude toward the USA among the common peoples,
which are usually apart from the elite in power in
these cultures.
That strategy worked rather well assisting the
Soviet Union power decreasing, though the current
situation is much more complicated and dangerous.
.
Next evolution stage. What it would be?
The complected tangled nature of the current crisis, that include as economical so political, sociological and cultural components, confirms the suppositions of the experts studying Wold and Big History that this crisis means civilization transition onto next Evolutionary Stage. At the current stage it is impossible to tell exactly what it would be. The only thing could be told that it wold be connected with the evolution of information exchange. Either it would be the Noosphere or it would be the Information Age – the exact forecast of the future system structure from its previous development stage is impossible. The social system of the humankind is very complected, it includes too many interacting components. So the future system would have some new qualities that could not drawn strait from its components qualities. Currently it is just more or less clear that it would be related with Information technologies development. That development would change the very nature of human society. Some experts call that Future world structure the “network pattern”. It would significantly increase the significance of the Social evolution policies grounded on the natural history understanding of the World History
till now the civilization rapture between two branches is just deepening For instance at the of July 2010 the government of Finland guaranteed in the state Constitution for its citizens the right to high-speed internet access. That legal act means official recognizing of the basic human needs changes. In the meanwhile in the main part of Russia area the question is still actual if Internet is evil or good. The same question is being passionately discussed in any traditional society
However till now the H. Sapiens is still relatively panmixic – ie humans of societies are still potentially able to mate. The longer that cultural isolation would last the less the panmixy potential would be.
The
upcoming new Age would need deep changes in the
World Management Strategy
Under the conditions of development of the network Word social pattern , its management requires accepting the strategy Primus into pares. Currently that strategy is considered the most effective method of management of some wide-scale process is the Strategy Primus into pares. So the steady leading position of the USA, the position that would simultaneously stabilise the whole World, would mean that state accepting the heavy but very promising role in this process of world globalisation
Nobody would be able now to tell exactly what that New World of the 21st century would be. More to point – that Word further evolution would not be possible without certain kind of aggression, that is needed to overcome the obstacles on the way. Just the offered in this essay strategy would facilitate the risky transaction period.
“ Truth in
science can be defined as the working hypothesis
best suited to open the way to the next better one”
Konrad Lorenz used to say.
Seems
somewhat impossible to reach that goal, but that was
Arthur Clarck who said “The only way of finding the
limits of the possible is by going beyond them into
impossible”
So shall we try?