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The Lemming Effect in Our Globalised World.
The so called "lemming effect" - the suicidal rage that happens periodically in some populations of polar rodents of the Cricetidae family. It's considered as a main mechanism of population destiny regulation and the species spreading to new habitats. This species have high reproductive rate. Their traditional natural habitat, the tundra, is characterized by high scarcity that may provide resources to some limit rodent population. However while there are enough resource the rodents reproduction leads to local rodents overpopulation, and that destroy the habitat equilibrium. Then the conditions are getting worse and animals in search for nutrition are urged to migrate to new not-overexploited areas. While migrating, the huge numbers of single animals gather in huge crowds in front of some barriers, for instance, water spaces. Being moved by hunger the animals throw them selves into those flows. Most of them die, however their large number provides that singles of them would survive and guarantee the population existence in new areas.
This suicidal process is called "lemming effect", despite it resides to some extend to any animal population. Since the Home sapience is the animal species as well, thus this mechanism is inherited in human beings population too. But are we ready to follow it? May be there are some ways to avoid its inevitability?
Human civilization History shows us many examples that formerly those overpopulation problems urged the migration flows and hence the new habitat areas development. Now all the more-or-less suitable Earth habitats are in exploitation. However what can be done if the cosmos space that was formerly regarded by the founders of cosmology as the main resource for future human spreading is still unattainable and it'd hardly ever been? At the beginning of cosmology, 40-30 years ago, people dreamt about "apple-trees that flower on the Mars hills" in 20 years from 60-es. However till now all those dreams are nothing but full dreams. Simultaneously the Earth population during last century increased by many times, increased life longevity and decreased mortality rate as well, in those countries that belong to so-called "Golden billion" or the "First Word" that was happening step-by-step and during the time of that Passover the biological processes of population rate regulation were switched on — as a "public psychology" process it takes long time a couple of generation at least. And its results are now observed in the countries of the "old Europe" and — partly — in the USA. The Russian population extinction is somewhat related to that process too, however there are many other reasons, socio-psychological, not less crucial. That means that first) the indigenous populations of those places are getting older and older as it's proven by the chart in the recent report of the UNO experts http://arusinov.livejournal.com/83881.html and second) in search of better conditions people from the Third Word are moving to those countries by any ways — they just have no other choice! It's proved by many cases of African immigrants to Spain et al, when about a hundred of refugees are trying to reach the desirable choice in some frail boats. Just like in "lemmings case" most of them die but singles reach the coast they are urging to reach and get needed "victim's" status. It’s like a lottery — only 10 of 50 would get it, but "the winner takes it all"
it's some extreme case, but since the population gets older and few young people occurs (due to those mechanisms of population density auto regulation have been switched on in course of the long society adjusting process) so due to those important process working the "Old Word" needs significant labour immigration from the other lass developed countries to secure certain life standards to its citizens. The similar process (without those extremes) happens in course of urbanization, which has been growing significantly during 20 century. Hence large numbers of newcomers occur, that experience most of the benefits of "civilized" life - medical and social benefits of urban life — and hence the mortality rate decrease significantly. However since these newcomers did not pass trough long "social adjusting process" the birth rate stay as high as it was in the area of their origin. At the same time all these newcomers bring with them "the archaic social relations culture". This culture confronts with the surrounding society culture and hence these people get isolated and get "encapsulated" while preserving archaic traditional social structures mutilated by new surrounding. (Btw that may be the reasons that causes the problem described here http://recommended-books-to-read.blogspot.com/2008/06/why-does-development-not-work.html#links). Hence the population rate grows in spurts. And simultaneously these societies are self-defending and gets into hard confrontation with the surrounding urban structures. Hence the society stratification increases and the combination of all these effects lead to conflict rate growing - aggravated by that "suicide raging" of the "lemming effect".
This is the cost of progress. It can't be turned backward, hence in order to avoid the "mass suicide" human beings are to learn how to deal with it. The latter at the present level of human evolution may destroy the very human habitat.
The modern PC policy allows no free discussion on any human society stratification problem, but we'd have to neglect it. (I'm not sure about the PC idea of today, but the original one (that of the end of the last century) clearly forbade that discussion. All people were considered equal in any aspects — no matter what is their background and surrounding. Later it was proved to be false, so now it may be over-rejected as controversial) If it is forgot about we could clearly see the process of the single species H.Sapiens stratification and even some sort of new species forming. And as it always happens in the process of the single species diversification the subspecies struggle for life is increasing — and today that unannounced Third World War is going on exactly between the archaic forms and the modernized ones, However H. Sapiens is not just a common species like any of biosphere, unlike it happens with others this species forming have the SOCIAL nature, and the selective press of the natural selection on its specimens had decreased significantly. Instead of biochemical genetic changes in this new subspecies-race forming is formed by so called "signal heredity" - term that was introduced by certain Russian genetics and physiologists ( the links are in Russian, these are Lobashev, Anokhin, Inge-Vechtomov — prominent professors-biologists.) That means that instead of the biochemical gene structures changes the changes occurring in IDEAS — and that is much more flexible and fast changes. Simultaneously this process may be perfectly managed and governed. In English language terms these would be memes (Dawkins, 1967). And memes can be ...managed or governed in some way, there are managing tools of them developed — however they were mainly in use by opponent forces in course of the Cord War only!
The process of memes managing (and hence of the social psychology's managing) so that process gets possible only in case if the globalization would finally turn out to be just a scarecrow without enough substance http://recommended-books-to-read.blogspot.com/2008/06/why-does-development-not-work.html#links It may be managed only through the global educational system development, which would introduce the new thinking habits and behavioural patterns. (This would ensure of modernizing social system accepting by the people of the "Third World" and thus it'd make the World Bank investments working at last by modernizing the grantee's social structure.)
The same (however less sharp) conflict is observed in process of the running currently urbanization. The urban life conditions are not as severe as those in rural areas and that's why "rural" people are mighty attracted by cities life conditions. However simultaneously these conditions differ from those of rural life that much that they need certain psychological changes that are taking some generation-time too. However the cities newcomers have no time to do it! They bring their "traditional" society psychology with them. Instead of integrating into the surrounding society, they tend getting encapsulated inside the circle of people with common shape, language and behaviour forming so-called "China towns", "Harlem’s" and "ghettoes". It's quite natural that all the surrounding word is regarded as some aggressive surrounding and the links inside such a community are getting stronger in order to struggle with the outside impact. The outside word is regarded as enemy that attempt solving the archaic structure with archaic vertical structures and it's that is meeting the hardest resistance. The "ground, mass civils" are ruled by those upper structures for whom these changes in human psychology that'd make people independent of manipulating by that powerful traditional memes as "sovereignty", "independence" or "uniqueness" and "folk". Usually these governing structures control power structures as well and if the system is rigid no changes in it could occur.
And in case the democracy is suddenly introduced the most populist leaders which use the most powerful archaic memes are getting power. No further changes would happen anymore. Human history is full of those examples. These examples prove that people in the "plebs" meaning may not use democracy — it's even dangerous. People should get citizens, who are ruled by reason, not by instant flexible emotions.
However that would make human being independent of any convincing from aside, any commercial advertising and other "Market forming" technologies... And that'd contradict with all the extensive commercial consuming model of the modern capitalistic society. That is the root of capitalism crisis — however all the alternatives to the capitalistic society — either these were some socialism-communism creatures or theocratic states have already proved to be much worse and less effective. That's why it's hard to expect that this idea would ever get working.
Simultaneously this would mean replaced the faith by reason. Is it possible?
I can't say either it's possible or not, but it's unavoidable if we'd like to apply the modern win-win strategy http://ezinearticles.com/?Collaborative-Negotiating:-A-Wi in this strategy: ""Negotiation takes two parties to carve some outcomes based on mutual interests. This mutual interest can be some dealing or even can be some dispute." An optimal scheme it is, is not it? And its success was proved by many cases of its applying, the most evident and well-known case is the after-Hitler Federal republic of Germany success.
The only problem in this case is that in any negotiations two parts are taking part, aren't they? To come to some decision they should understand each other, to "speak the same language" - and that's by no mean just linguistic problem only. The linguistic is the least one in fact. What is much more important is that general "thinking habits", behavioural patterns that are common in two societies. And in this case some unification may be achieved through this global education system establishing and hence the replace of faith by the reason.
However that is just attractive sweet theory. In real life it'd meet a lot of resistance and even combating, For the archaic structure of many isolated society would oppose any changes in their head structures, which would mean the loss their governing functions and hence money and status benefits. Till the faith is still on its place the folk they are ruling on is still perfectly manipulated, and hence they'd fight severely any threat to it.
The only language they understand is the language of power. - Hence which conclusion we should make of it? They should teach the other language, they should be taught other language — there is no other way to teach it in other ways.
This is the main conflict of civilizations of the current time. In order to mitigate it the only way is to change the "excessive" of human civilization development to the intensive one. But how it can be made not just some sound words? The only way I see ( and not only me alone, but many eminent experts say the same, for instance Vernadsky (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Vernadsky ), Tatiana Cherikhovskay (linguist-philologist) http://www.genling.nw.ru/person/ChernigovskayaEN.htm , as well as other scientists and philosophers say that the only possible way is human mind development. Simultaneously the use of the main difference of human beings from lemmings’ et al would be the only way to avoid following the "lemming scenario".
Nowadays the situation gets harder because it seems that human population had reached the traditional limits of its habitat. The Mondial Famine problem proves that human population further extensive is hardly possible... However the switch to the intensive one needs the pass from faith to the reason and hence it needs the human mind analytical ability development. And how else that could be achieved without the Global education system creation?
I'm not going to say that it's a panacea, however it's condition sine qua non.
The similar discussion is carried out in the USA.
"Americans, in short, should be tired of hearing
that we are a post-industrial, postmodern, post-anything society.
Instead, we want to be known again as a can-do producer nation that
sweats as much as it thinks. And the confident presidential candidate
who can best assure us of that will surely win this election....A
new, hungrier generation of Americans will have to want to reclaim our
pre-eminence and change the national attitude. It must be ready to pay
off generations of debt rather than borrow, build rather than sue, and
drill rather than whine.
It’s time to honour rather than avoid and outsource physical labour. Our
children are healthy enough to cut our own lawns and pick our fruit.
Let’s also hope they want to hear a lot more about Gen. David Petraeus’
success, and a lot less of Madonna’s latest psychodramas. " -
"The Washington Times", Victor Davis Hanson
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/18/america-is-not-post-anything/
so only the market auto regulation capacity may be relied on... slightly