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Human Society Evolution Tends.
20/01 Version
Analytical review of the report of Prof. Hans Rosling at the TED Conference of 2006,Monterrey, California
or
The human society evolutionary trends
Abstract
The statistic data of the demographic and economical changes that were taking place within last 30-40 years in human words that were presented at the report of Prof. Hans Rosling, presented by him at the TED Conference of the 2006, allow a researcher to trace the main trends of these changes and to come to some conclusions on further human evolution. The statistics data, presented at the report of Prof. Rosling, scientific background of the PhD in biology together with as other materials from Social Science Researches Network so personal experience of socializing in several various social systems let the author the opportunity to analyse the report and to make some conclusions concerning human evolution trends. The comparative analytical criticisms of the three Social Darwinism authors, Spencer, Malthus and Galton in the regard of new sociological data was carried out
Introduction
At the present stage the nature of human evolution has changed. Development of medical techniques and social welfare institutions made the natural selection by means of elimination moving to the selection by means of competition via discussion of social organization ideas. Combination of these two factors works instead of natural selection, making the most adjusted forms surviving. At the beginning to the 20th century it lead to significant population increase.That led to the human evolution had got the social aspect by now. The technologiczl and sociological development by the end of the 20th century streamed the natural selection by some traditional means pressure to zero for the most of the Earth population, and especially for the subjects of the “Western World”. Here the Rosling classification is applied. For that part of the World the social evolution started in the middle of the 20th century. For the H. Sapiens species it may be regarded as the evolutionary mainstream. The analysing mind and the Second Signal System development were the main feature that distinguished H.Sapiens from other animal species. That was that advantageous feater that determined its evolution successes.
Critical review of old-fachioned ideas of the Social Darvinism concept
Despite Darwin considered the theory of social evolution as central to his theory, it was first misunderstood and then paid few attention by sociologist and economists, reports Alain Marciano from the University of Reims Champaign-Ardenne. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=673061 Due to the political-economical situation in the World by the time of the theory development, it got highly popular among various philosophers-sociologists and economists,. Together with works of such philosophers as Spencer, Malthus and Galton and that time development of the human heredity mechanisms knowledge, scientific and as the technical progress development forecast so the general political and economical situation in the Word pushed the most of philosophers into various kinds of racism-nazism theories. That had discredited the very concept of this idea. It had got somewhat indecent even to mention that term “sociodarvinism”. However all the facts got during the 20th century, especially it's second part, together with recent researches prove that along with the genetic factors in human heredity, and especially with their work appearance, the socio-psychological component is not less important is heredity. It's proved by the data presented in this article. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-stein9-2009jan09,0,3149168.column. This proves that the role of genetic determinism was traditionally badly overestimated. Hence by now the importance of the Darwinism sociological component has been significantly increased by now
Natural selection by non-eliminating means in the present human society
The traditional press of natural selection by some eliminative means that forward the evolution of other species is now replaced by marketing success mechanisms, that secure the primary surviving of forms, providing higher income, and the democracy mechanisms, those are to secure competition between ideas. As for typical for other species genetic heredity – it was replaced by cultural heredity, which is related with the Second Signal System development and is getting more and more powerful for human beings in course of its development history. Its influence increases together with communication means and market-forming technologies development.
Other mechanism is the commercial market success that secure the most required products success.
The combination of these two selection mechanisms is supposed to replace the traditional natural selection press in sociological evolution – in ideal. Hereandafter the evolutionary brach, following this direction would be called the democratic or Western system. Other biological species that have no reasoning or free will (NB!) are to follow ethological instincts those suppose the traditional more-or-less strict hierarchical autocratic pattern of organisation. So may that branch be called the traditional one. The main difference between those two braches is that one, the Western or the democratic one, - it would depend on the terminology in use, - means in the bottom the ability of quick changing itself. This ability is the main specific features for living world in hole. The autocracy may be of various types, but its main feature is resisting and preventing any changes. Both those ideas extremes are dangerous. Democracy formed the free-market conditions to meet the raising people needs, but failed later into the most dangerous form of autocracy – the market success autocracy. So the extremes as it happens usually have meet each other. In the meanwhile due to many demographic problems together with the natural resources exhausting the intraspecific struggle between those two branches within the single species H. sapiens had significantly increased.
The evolutionary branches features
These two branches may be determine after the following features. The Western system is providing human being better conditions by changing the surrounding nature conditions. Its subjects are human beings. Hence their ideology and believes and views may stay less affected by the system . The traditional system otherwise aims to conserve the traditional intersociety interrelations pattern and hence they would rather prevent any conditions changes, leaving them neglected at the cast of ideology strengthening. Simultaneously the needs and demands of the changing society members are neglected, and their loyalty is secured at the cast of ideology pressure reinforcing. That contradicts evolution and leads to society stagnation or even certain recession under changing conditions.
Two evolutionary branches struggle
This intraspecific struggle within still single species of H, sapiens means the struggle between the democratic and the traditional forms of the social structure.
The sense of natural selection is supposed to adjust its object to the changing environment conditions and to secure the several generations on surviving of the fittest form. Nowadays this is the gene-based distinction by no means but the social distinctions and the distinction in public psychology first of all. Unlike the genetic changes they are more mobile and may be well managed.
The fittest form concept
The fittest social form is the one, providing its subjects with better adjusting to the environment within several generation life time
(http://www.literature.org/authors/darwin-charles/the-origin-of-species-6th-edition/chapter-03.html)
Evolution in general means the changes in the inherited traits of a population of organisms from one generation to the next.
The concept of the fittest model in sociology
and two reproduction strategies
Then we should regard what is the meaning of the word “the fittest”, so what is the most optimal adjusting for a species? In other species biology it is that form that guarantee the higher descendants surviving in course of several generation. So the advantages of life conditions of the Western civilization are evident (life longevity, infant mortality, income per Capita ). It is proved by data presented at the Prof Rosling' report. However due to law reproductive rate it is not able to secure within several generation the inheriting of its traits. That means these countries fallow reproductive K-strategy, that one that was called by Prof Rosling students typical for the “western World” “long lives, small families”. The descenders within this strstegy are more competitive in long-term period but in short-term one it loses in competition with the another, let's say, traditional branch. The representatives of that second branch follow the r-strategy, when people mostly have large families and short lives and higher infant mortality – as it is shown at the charts presented by Prof Rosling. The same charts show the trend within the Third World Countries to move from one strategy to another in course of the latest 30 years. In other species ecology this process is typical for any natural bioceonosis final forming. Its new areas are exploited by r-srategy species. That change its basic conditions. Then those species are replaced by the K-strategy species in course of succession. So the equilibrium and stability in the mature bioceonosis is secured. To ensure its further existing H. sapiens is to pass through this process while staying genetically single species. After the data presented in the report on the Word's changes in human society this process is closely related with the Western social model distribution.
It is the most evident at the example of India, China and, especially Vietnam, that has by now the same family size and life longevity as they were in the USA by the start of Vietnam war.
At this range only the Arab states break that trend. There the life expectancy increased, infant mortality decreased but the birth rate did not changed significantly. Simultaneously it should be noticed that despite all the oil prices growth the GDP has been even slightly decreased even in the most successful state, the United Arabs Emirates.
This strategy replacement process has been going on since the beginning of the 20th century.At that moment the Earth population had rapidly increased under the influence of industrial revolution. The reproduction strategy exchange is to help to overcome the Earth overpopulation problem and the problem of the natural resources extermination. The head of the Russian Institute of Demography Mr Vyazovsky (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc4OwDtCzc8&feature=related in Russian) presents the charts proving that this process is going on now and the data of Prof Rosling prove it is closely related with the “Western model” distribution. So it may be considered as evolutionaty mainstream now. Not the USA are dictating its evil will to the rest of the Word. No, this pattern just offer better living condition and THAT makes people voluntary accepting it. However this model contradict with the “ideological”, “traditional” branch system. That means that system leaders to increase the ideology pressure in order no to loose the struggle. Thus the straggle increases significantly and the modern political situation presents us many examples for it.
However genetically H. sapiens is still ONE species, till now. So this struggle may be still managed if new scientific achievements are applied in the politics of the state whose politics affect all the rest of the word now – the USA.
The role of social managing structures
The role of social structures – governments in securing the living advantages of Western system is especially high, as it is proved by the statistic data, presented at the report of Dr Hans Rosling at the the TED Conference in Monterrey at the year of 2006. The most evident it is seen, if one look at the example of Vietnam, South Korea and Brazil (the latest two were at about the same level in 60-es, but the South Korea moves forward much faster and is obviously much more successfully socially organized unit).
The free-market-democratic system is more-or-less coping with the securing of the short-term providing of its members with higher living standards (see the data on the life longevity, children mortality and income per capita in the USA and the OECD countries presented in the report of Mr. Rosling). This system more-or-less succeed in meeting this goals in course of few (less than 5) generations.
However it's not that good in ensuring this advantage for an long enough period (let's say several generations on) for it's related with increasing urbanization level, globalization and hence to the deepest public psychology changes. Those psychology changes are forced by rapid surroundings changes. They affect first of all the human emotions, which are controlled by ethological instincts. And these instincts are first to wich any autocratic system calls for, no matter is it the autocracy of the state, of some ideology or that one of the market. In the meanwhile the human life under the conditions of the Western system with the current development of technologies makes the species main evolutionary advantage – analysing mind - almost unnecessary for certain everyday surviving. In these conditions the basis of the Western system may get neglected and forgotten. That causes some society recession. Hence it may easily fail into traditional state and lose its advantages, so lose the competition. However inspiring is the fact that the innovations lay at the bottom of the market system, so in order to securing its-self surviving it is to promote this ability. That is to prevent stagnation.
In the meanwhile the struggle between the two evolutionary branches is getting stronger and at the present moment it threatening the very humanity existence. That means that those evolutionary advantages should be better used.
How the competition of these two branches might be managed?
The only exit from this situation seems the changes of public psychology through wide enlightenment program that offers people the reason-based choice opportunity. To do it a person is to to de responsible and have developed mind (or well-trained, whatever).
To make reason-based choice the individual is to be able to make its own decisions. The importance of this ability was many times discussed by various authorized theorists, such as Knocke, B (1990) in Political networks: structural perspective (Cambridge, England; New York Cambridge University Press)
He places emphasis on information and knowledge, in addition to material resources as a «basis» for defining «power» to produce» intended efforts on the attitudes or behaviours of other actors in the transactions around network». The skill of any person ability to make independent conclusions was also discussed by Richard Thousand in his «Straight and crooked thinking». Muslim writer from Jordan Shechar Al-Nabusi was complaining on lost Muslims mind. Jordan is special state at the moment but it seems to be doomed after its Shakh death. Today there and in the UAE there are wise leaders but their future depends just on “God's will” only – would be their heirs that wise too? And the abundant crowds by the «poor Palestine oppressed refugees» with archaic psychological pattern could aim to zero the most of there achievements. .
Managing public psychology changes – hence managing interspecies struggling
So instead of huge humanitarian aids by ready goods from all the Western Word people should be trained in using new technologies, as productive to create new job opportunities to prevent further society lumpenization and hence its radicalization. To maintain this new society new socio-political, administrative technologies are to be brought. New attitude toward life and new social interrelations should be taught since childhood while behaviour patterns are easily accepted by juveniles from the more authorised people. Almost the same thing has already been done by the New Zealand in its Asian- Pacific region. according to the facts, presented at In September 2000, the Millennium Summit in Rio http://rendt.gorter.gen.nz/2008/10/sustainability-fear-and-excitement.html#links.
The key moment – public opinion change!
That could be done through the promotion of the development of wide local mass-media network (just not the “yellow” ones! Nobody believe them, though they are highly popular and hence commercially they are the most successful. Unfortunately to combine these products with the social mission id impossible due to the format-conflict). Influence of the mass-media is hard to overestimate and underestimate at the same time. Even if one says it pay no attention to them, they form public opinion, the environment, very powerful a thing! Ex-soviet peoples know it perfectly well.
The federal level mass-media are strictly controlled by the state bodies, but less attention is paid to those of local, district or village level. In the meanwhile the lowest level local media have more options for drawing public into active social life. On the local, dasic level people know their neighbours. Thus it would be easily to involve them into local society life. Throu the open public opinion their responsibility would be increased. These meadias should not be dedicated to some high politics issues, but dealing with day-by-day local life not to draw additional attention to them. By making peoples involved into local social life they are to change step-by-step public psychology
However that policies would definitely meet severe opposition from the present socio-political elite of those Third Word countries for it would mean them getting out-of-date status. Definitely they would severely resist this process, sometimes by military forces. .
And what to do with it? There seems to be no alternative.
Conclusions
However the resisting may be smoothed down a bit, if applying win-win strategy, as says Mary Sass from the Western Washington University his his article “Integration is Not Collaboration: Implication for Win-Win Negotiations” http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1100736
The only country that may get bothering with now it is the USA. (no matter one likes it or not – it just is so). However till now its people together with the government are still not realising this country mission. That is the reason of its policies permanent failure in last 8 years. Since the USA is the most powerful force now and it'd influencing all the rest of the human word, its denying of their mission makes them acting as a bull in a China shop... the steps this country was taking till now were just worsening the situation and caused anti-american moods all over the word.
In 1960es the USA seemed to have got their mission and the president JF Kennedy had organized the Peace of Corp with the similar mission http://www.peacecorps.gov/index.cfm?shell=learn. However the later political leaders had almost forget its mission. Together with the flourishing consumeris intensively promoted by present market-based society it made his acting almost unnoticeable by today. May be the time had come to revive that initiative?
The organization with similar goals is the Heritage foundation http://www.heritage.org/had been recently founded to secure American cultural leadership. However till now the wide public level knows few on this organization.
The longer it's going on the higher is the chance it gets too late for any changes.
----End of politically appropriate conclusions----
the conclusions that might be not inappropriate for political correctness
However scientific research are not able to stay scientific ones and to follow that paradigm.
If judge after the curves presented at the lecture charts the Arabian states show even slight decrease of GDP per capita (family) despite all the huge oil income they have got. Prof Rosling says that the health is not the thing you can easily buy at the supermarket. If in United Arabian Emirats the policies of the Sheik is more-or-less compensating the social problems, in Yemen there is no such a wise sheikh and there is a civil war. Not less impressive is the difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka (the data presented here reflect the country state BEFORE the recent anti-terrorism war was started) – does it not prove the inborn failure of modern Muslim, ie islamist ideology-based society ( any thocratic- ie traditions-based rigid - society fails in some ways , Muslims are just the most upraising now. The reasons for that would be considered by relevant experts. However the interesting and worth of further considering view is offered by Jeremy Ginges , Ian Hansen , and Ara Norenzayan from the New School for Social Research of University of British Columbia in their study Religion and Support for Suicide Attacks http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121633778/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
I hope that would smooth down a bit the “political inappropriateness ” of these conclusions, would it not? - Failing would be any rigid ideology, that go across with biological laws and is developing out of civil control. So any system persisting in following out-of-date ideology is failing in the same fault – instead of changing ideology base it gets changing its citizens needs, demands and psychology . And nowadays that would not go without certain violence
The UNO recently had issued data reflecting the direct connection between the nation IQ and its wealth http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations Despite somewhat unreliable data ( due to the inappropriate techniques of data collecting first of all and due to still unsolved question of the relation of the IQ test, intellect and education, the general trend is obvious, isn't it?
But today excess of political correctness is just
dooming the civilization, so let us leave it forgotten for a while! The
key sense of that piece is not to oppose democratic and autocratic
system, but to prove that any traditional system has autocratic nature.
All the traditional systems, so bewailed by modern left intellectuals
are either highly isolated – or just overautocratic to prevent their
citizens sudden escape or to prevent, to prohibit any contact with
other types of civilization.
Any tradition would be able to be preserved for long time only if its
new adept are governed by more authority people. Usually these are
olders one, which are almost usually opponents to any innovations –
simply because of biological behavioral mechanisms!
Revolution of 1917 – was not it the innovation?
One may say, that USSR could be considered as a perfect example of an autocratic system, but not traditional at all – for it was a sharp innovative break at the Revolution of 1917. So it seemed at the first time, but soon it got absolutely not true at all! Soon the traditional imperial social organization was restored and that held as log as the "iron curtain" stayed locked. And the isolation increased until the country could stand it. However as soon as Gorbachev had half-opened a small window there – that state had fallen down with crashing down a lot of flotsam around.
So traditional systems and the autocratic are closely related. As long as they stay geographically isolated – some island, some unique characteristics areas which do not allow people free migration – these system works more or less OK. But today due to globalization increase, migrations rate increased too. So the migration rate increases – and some traditional ones are getting striking back in resistance. The most remarkable now is the Muslim one, but it's somewhat the same for any "religious" system, Muslims just got a bit more "lucky". However many various reasons of it should be discussed in a separate articles The in Rome Catholic the most resist out-of-date system of Holy Inquisition got break by Napoleon, the Anglican church was just evolving in the bourgois environment. But the American brach of it constantly suffers of falling into some commercialization – so market autocracy. As is Russia it happens the same now with Orthodox Church ( the Great Empire style!) so in Israel till there is no Constitution that separates state and the religion. Local so-called "ultra-orthodox-haredims", they just blow up nobody!...they just lock their districts till they are still able, ie to certain extend. But any of these branches in social plan slow down the evolution. The most evident it is in Russia where the Church is traditionally (though not legally!) highly integrated into the state structures. Almost the same happens in Israel
The Final Conclusions
So it may be said that as any traditional system extreme promotion leads to certain society recession so does neglecting to any traditions. In conditions of the interspecies struggle between those two branches reinforcement it may threaten the very species existence – hence the new evolutionary and science-based approaches could not be neglected anymore and should be applied into politics
The USA are at the moment the leaders of social evolution. Their politics influence the whole word. However not to ruin it the USA are to practice more science-based politics.
In the meanwhile that might not be the reason to rest on their laurels. It's rather sophisticated task to find the “golden middle”. “the middle way” between keeping some traditions and keeping on changes along with the changing word, but there is no other way and only that country due to its history and structure is able to do it.
However the mistakes in getting that way affect the whole word as well – as the current economics; crisis had just proved
The top priority tasks are applying science-founded methods in politics and pass to win-win strategy, that may help to overcome a large part of anti-American moods in the rest of the World.